New Delhi: The Central Electricity Authority estimated that India would require around 3,07,000 MW of thermal power capacity from coal and lignite by 2034–35 to meet projected electricity demand, the Union government informed Parliament on Monday.
The Ministry of Power said the estimate emerged from the generation expansion planning study conducted by the CEA. The study assessed the optimal mix of generation sources, including coal, hydro, solar, wind, storage, and nuclear power. It considered factors such as capital costs, fuel costs, operations and maintenance expenses, and the useful life of generation technologies.
As of March 31, 2023, India’s installed thermal power capacity stood at 2,11,855 MW. To bridge the gap between existing capacity and future needs, the ministry envisaged setting up at least 97,000 MW of additional coal- and lignite-based capacity over the coming decade.
Since April 2023, developers commissioned around 17,360 MW of new thermal capacity up to January 20, 2026. In addition, projects totalling 39,545 MW, including 4,845 MW of stressed assets, were under construction. The government also awarded contracts for 22,920 MW that are due for construction, while another 24,020 MW remains at various planning stages.
Thermal power capacity outlook and cost comparison
The ministry said coal-based plants were likely to operate at an average plant load factor of about 61% by 2031–32. However, it noted that actual utilisation would depend on growth in electricity demand, coal availability, and the pace at which renewable energy capacity materialises.
The CEA’s planning model compared new coal-based plants with renewable and storage options by analysing technology costs, demand projections, fuel prices, and operational characteristics. Officials said the cost of coal-based power varied based on plant life, distance from coal mines, and the technology used, such as sub-critical or super-critical units.
Data shared in Parliament showed that the all-India weighted average rate of sale of power from existing coal plants ranged between ₹4.36 and ₹4.58 per unit over the last three years. The lowest tariff reported stood at about ₹1.52 per unit. In contrast, tariffs discovered for new coal-based projects through competitive bidding in 2025 ranged from ₹5.38 to ₹6.30 per unit.
The minister also cited firm and dispatchable renewable energy tenders awarded by SECI in August 2024, which discovered tariffs of around ₹4.98 to ₹4.99 per unit. However, the government cautioned against direct comparisons, stating that coal-based thermal power and renewable projects serve different system needs and involve distinct cost structures.
This information was provided by Minister of State for Power Shripad Naik in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.
